Many archaeologists have recognized the limitations of the hypothetico-deductive model for explaining prehistoric human behavior. In its purist sense, explanation using this model is attainable only if a particular phenomenon can ultimately be predicted or, in the case of prehistory, postdicted, given a certain set of circumstances. Unfortunately, the complexity of human behavior does not meet the explanatory requirements of prediction. Ethnoarchaeological research clearly indicates that similar archaeological patterns can be produced by different types of human behavior. Therefore, many alternative hypotheses can account for the same pattern in the archaeological record.
Alternative models of scientific confirmation and explanation are generally more inductive. However, the proponents of these models still stress the importance of developing and testing hypotheses. Salmon (1982) argues that the plausibility of all hypothetical accounts of a particular archaeological pattern must be considered. Prior to testing a hypothesis the alternative hypotheses should be evaluated and those with a low probability (prior probability) rejected prior to the test. Statistical rather than universal laws of human behavior can thus be established. This philosophical model is more compatible with the systems approach, which is a more inductive method of scientific inquiry.
The foundations of the scientific method for reconstructing the prehistoric past have recently been questioned. Critiques have been put forward by archaeologists who emphasize the explanatory significance of historical factors for understanding prehistoric culture change. They argue that the complexities of historical trajectories are impossible to predict using scientific reasoning. For this reason, I. Hodder (1984) argues that the scientific method cannot be used to reconstruct prehistoric human behavior and that scientific objectivity is “a false and misleading goal of archaeology.” This view is also based on the notion that archaeological theory is influenced by the historical, intellectual, and sociopolitical climate in which it is developed. Therefore, scientific verification of hypotheses is impossible because theory and data cannot be separated. These are valid criticisms of scientific archaeology; however, proponents of this radical school of thought have largely failed to propose a sound alternative approach.
With the exception of the post-processual group, scientific methods continue to be favored in contemporary archaeology. In general, archaeologists agree that the primary goal of archaeological research is to describe and explain behavioral changes in the prehistoric past. Description and explanation are scientific activities. It is also recognized that the scientific method provides a useful guide to archaeological research in that it helps determine what types of data to collect and analyze. However, archaeologists do not yet agree on the best philosophical model for scientific inquiry. Whether verification of hypotheses should be an inductive or a deductive process will undoubtedly be an issue in the field of archaeology for years to come. Regardless, scientific activities should not be undertaken at the expense of ignoring historically unique phenomena. Archaeology is both a scientific and humanistic discipline. The scientific method is only one aspect of exploring the complexity of human behavior. Particular historical events must be considered in all explanations of past events. Historical and scientific approaches should be treated as complementary rather than antithetical and used in parallel to further elucidate the prehistoric past.
